Blog has MOVED

Google has decided to yank my ads so I've moved the blog over to TheFreeMarketCapitalist.com Fuck you Google :)

Fuck you Google :)

El Paso Agrees to be Bought by Kinder Morgan for $21.1B

Earlier today El Paso (EP) agreed to be bought by Kinder Morgan Inc. for a 40% premium to Friday's close, creating North America's largest Nat-Gas pipeline operator. I see plenty of M&A's in the pipeline industries future so I put together a screen of the companies similar to El Paso (EP) that I think are most likely to be snatched up next.

Check out the screen after the break:

Tomorrow's Gameplan

Make no mistake that this market is OB, but guess what? It doesn't matter. With Europe looking "solved" (yeah right), and earnings season kicking off with a Google-sized bang, the bulls are in control. This rally could go another week, but when we're OB like this my research tends to lead me more towards finding good stocks to short, not buy. I may snag some Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) to play Wednesday's earnings report but only if I see a good entry. Also, one of my screens shows that Nabors Industries (NBR) and CVR Energy (CVI) have historically run on avg 8%-9% from where they closed Friday, over 95% of the time! Not bad odds right? I'll be picking some up early in the AM. But on the short side, another one of my screens turned up three names that historically have fallen, on avg, at least 5% over 70% of the time they became OB. It's not time to short since they're not quite OB yet, but I'll be watching Rio Tinto (RIO), DineEquity (DIN) and Rubicon (RBCN) very closely. Harbin Electric (HRBN) is already flashing "Tech OB" so I shorted some on Friday. Last time Harbin Electric (HRBN) registered "Tech OB" in my screen it fell over 12%. Chinese stocks are getting killed anyway recently so if the market turns, this one could test it's 200d MA. Harbin Electric (HRBN) closed at $22.09 on Friday and it's 200 day MA is $18.10.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL and short HRBN at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Insanity would be putting it lightly

I'm 27 years-old and most of my friends are my age or younger. While I sit at home this Saturday digging through 10-Q's and 8-K's looking for the next undervalued asset, many of my contemporaries are "occupying" Wall Street . They are protesting against what they believe is a corrupt banking system that has led us into near financial ruin and left the country with 9% unemployment, while the CEO's of these banks walked away millionaires. Anyone who can't understand the frustration of these people is just being an asshole. But while I understand, I can't support OWS. The message is unclear, the goals are not definable and the tactics being used cannot be effective in the long run. Yes, they've brought media attention to their cause, but the second unemployment starts to drift back down towards the 7% range (which I think happens by next X-mas), the masses and lame-stream media will lose interest in their "occupation." The "people" will be sipping the Kool-aid once again, playing sheep in a broken system just waiting to be sent back into depression, after depression, until we're a third-world country abandoned by the rich and powerful that got us into the mess to begin with. Great. I'm glad you want to do something. Much of the system should be overhauled and certain regulations put in place, no question. But class warfare is just populous thinking. Taxing success is the wrong message to send to any population. Their is a proper balance that needs to be struck and the OWSer's want to take it to far. But, once again, can you blame them? Had these greedy fuck-tards not abused the shit out of the corrupt system put in place over 30+ years ago this wouldn't be happening. The government is the one to blame. Democrats and Republicans. The banks are just scapegoats and tools that have been used by our Federal Reserve. OWSer's are misdirecting their anger. If they really want to change the system, they should focus thier attention on Washington, not Wall Street.

Tomorrow's Gameplan

Google (GOOG) reported a stellar quarter after the bell, handily beating eps estimates by 11%. I'm guessing we'll be up off the news tomorrow (tech anyway), but this rally has been long in the tooth since Friday. If we are up, I'll be using it as an opp to close out my longs and add to my shorts. It's hard to get short into Apple's (AAPL) earnings due out Wednesday after the bell, but this market has been OB for a while. I'd rather miss some upside and perserve capital, than get caught too exposed.  If anything, let's pray Apple (AAPL) is down Monday so we can get in before earnings, but don't count on it. I promise we'll have a better entry point than tomorrow. I started a position in Western Refining Inc. (WNR) which is red hot right now. I started another position in $VXX and will open one in $FAZ if we have a real melt-up. PLEASE BE WARNED: There is pain ahead in this market so don't get caught up in the "jubilation" tomorrow.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

A little perplexed is I...

Not knowing what to do sucks. I've been waiting for a correction that's looks like it's never coming and missed an ass-load of upside doing so. I'm not in "panic-chase" mode by any means, but yesterday and today I've slightly increased my long exposure via $TZOO and $WNR. I'm hedging those bets with some $VXX and should be about 65% cash, 25% long and 10% short by day end. I'll be looking to increase my short exposure by trimming down my long position to about 10% and adding to my $VXX, and staring some $FAZ if we gap higher from here.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long TZOO, WNR and VXX at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

I was too damn early

My technical indicators have been flashing OB since Friday and now are even in the upper end of the OB range, but it doesn't matter. Stock fundamentals have been too low for a while, and with Europe looking solved for the time being and the good companies are playing "catch-up" with fair value. Damn the technicals. It's dumb to get in front of this upwards momentum. Call me dumb. I had to cover all my shorts and sell my $VXX and $EDZ today. I got aggressive with some $TZOO and still have some $AAPl, $ARCO, and $ALXN but remain almost 80% in cash. I know I'm probably going to miss a few days of upside but 20% long exposure when we're this OB is fine with me. Remember the motto: Perserve capital.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long TZOO at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.