A little early, but happy none the less

I unloaded when we were only up a bit yesterday so I've missed the last 300 points but it would have been foolish to not lock in gains when you're up 30% on the week. I'm sitting in about 55% cash and don't intend to do much today. The downside risk is there but so is the upside. Neutral is the way to be. If you were braver than I, don't sell until late in the day. Everyone who made bank this week is taking profits now, but there won't be any bears willing to put there asses on the line and get short here so I think we have triple digit gains by day-end. I'm still holding Apple (AAPL), Arcos Dorados Holding (ARCO) and ARM Holding (ARMH) cause I've taken such a bath with them and I don't see much more downside (famous last words lol). Also, I still have my Netlix (NFLX) on takeover spec and Alexion Pharma (ALXN) on FDA-approval spec which I'll hold til it happens or I'm wrong. Still long dollar and short euro.

-Stay thirsty my friends ;)

Today's Game Plan

Two days ago I outlined my short term strategy of getting long, and yesterday I covered all my shorts early into the dip. I picked up Decker's Outdoor (DECK), Spyder S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Russel 2000 ETF (IWM), Apple (AAPL), and, believe it or not, a nat. resources company Cliff's Natural Resources (CLF). I also started a position in the Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) as a play on the strengthening US Dollar. This is one of my favorite Q4 themes. Tomorrow I'll be looking to add to my Euro shorts via the (EUO) since I think this rally continues on more "good" news out of Europe which should bring up the struggling currency. With the exception of my FOREX moves, all my other trades are very short term. I'll look to start selling all my other trades in 5% or so except for Apple (AAPL), because it's P/E is too low, Netflix (NFLX), because it's oversold and a prime takeover target, and Alexion Pharma (ALXN) because approval of it's drug could come as early as Q4. I wouldn't buy any commodities here except copper for a quick bounce.

-Good Luck, let's make some money.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long DECK, SPY, IWM, AAPL, CLF, ALXN, and NFLX at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

I'm still not buying it...

I seem to be a very torn individual these days. Many of the things I predicted would happen have begun to come true. The market is up 150+ points as Germany passed the TARP-like measure seen as necessary to save the Euro Zone, and jobless claims and GDP came in better than expected so it seems the economy isn't quite as bad as we all thought. All seems rosy right?? Wrong. There are some ominous signs out there that have me raising cash and only picking at a few select names on weakness. We'll start with copper, probably the best indicator of economic growth out there, has fallen like a stone. China, the gasoline keeping this global economy running, is drastically reducing how much copper it's consuming. Then a poll taken by Bloomberg showed 59% of respondents believe China will fall to sub-5% GDP growth by 2016. A "hard landing" of less than 5 percent growth for the world's most populous nation would be "disastrous" for the world economy, said Qu Hongbin, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong. The nation wouldn't be able to create enough jobs for those entering the workforce, sparking a "serious social problem," he said. "I'd rather bet that it's the end of the world in five years than to bet on China's growth falling below 5%." This puts into perspective just how dire this situation is. If China goes, we all go. Your iPhone goes from costing $250 to $1000. Not good. Hopefully China would have the foresight to change their model to accommodate the lower growth by shifting to a strategy of household spending- led expansion, softening what global investors anticipate will be a hard landing. We should stay away from BRIC stocks such as Baidu (BIDU), New Oriental Education and Tech (EDU) and Arcos Dorados Holding (ARCO) until we get a clearer picture of what's going on in the land of Mao. Another ominous sign is which stocks are actually leading this market. I truly believe as goes Apple (AAPL), goes the market, and recently Apple's (AAPL) RS line has been falling. I talk about Apple (AAPL) a lot as the leader of this market but it's not just Apple (AAPL). All the mo-mo names like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Decker's Outdoor (DECK) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) need to lead the way. Right now that just isn't happening. Almost every stock I watch is down today in an up 160 market. Gold and silver are up a bit here but I won't be adding to my shorts today unless we go dramatically higher. The precious metals have fallen so much you'd think there would be a little consolidation before we move another leg down. The only move I'm contemplating right now is adding to my euro shorts. The euro is up about a penny today versus the dollar off the Germany vote, but I see many bumps in the road ahead for Europe. My year-end price target for the euro is $1.28.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL and ARCO at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Buying the sell-off

As usual Europe is giving us a bloody Monday on a fresh batch of Greek worries, but I'm using it as an opportunity to do some buying. I think we could go lower here over the next few days but I want to be building my positions in the names that can run in the coming months. The general market will have it's hurdles, but there are certain companies with stellar earnings that are undervalued here. As we suss out the European crisis over the next few weeks, I believe these names will lead the way. Today I picked up some Autozone (AZO), which I'll be profiling later, Baidu (BIDU), and Broadcom (BRCM), another play on semi's with Apple (AAPL) exposure. Gold and the Euro are falling today and as you know I've been playing both with the Proshares Ultrashort Gold ETF (GLL), and the Proshares Ultrashort Euro ETF (EUO). I think both trades continue to play out over the next month as Europe capitulates, and gold seeks support at it's 200 day MA.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long GLL, EUO, BIDU, BRCM, and AZO at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Tr-yen

It's a pretty ugly day out there and it's getting uglier. Look at what just happened to the Yen. Can you say flash crash? Let's see what the BOJ thinks about printing money now!

Japan won't devalue?

There are rumors out of the far east this morning that Japan won't follow the same path as the SCB and devalue it's currency. Let's not forget that the Yen is at an all time high versus the Euro and the Dollar. This rumor is being blamed for gold's big drop this morning, but who's really to say? Check out the free fall below:

Gold goes lower; Futures modestly higher

I'm watching the Yankee game which was delayed for 4 hours because of rain and a quick check on the Bloomberg shows a rally in the Asian markets, the Euro below $1.40, and gold down $30 to $1843 per troy ounce.  With the Euros just about to wake up and most likely hit us with some ungodly news about bank solvency or sovereign debt, I can't imagine these facts will be the same when I wake up. Here's hoping <fingers crossed>

Update: Yankees Win 5-3

Swiss Franc collapses!!

Anyone who went to sleep long the Swiss Franc is being talked off a ledge this morning. Currency markets have been a thrown for a loop this morning as just before 9 GMT, the news that the SCB has pegged the country's exchange rate at 1.20 Swiss Francs per Euro. When I went to bed last night it was 1.10 Swiss Francs per Euro! The SCB suggested it would purchase an unlimited amount of euros regardless of the risk to maintain that value. This sent the gold market haywire. The minute the news dropped, after being at a record $1921 per ounce, gold fell to $1862 before quickly recovering to $1912. Citing "the current massive overvaluation of the Swiss Franc", the SCB said it will "no longer tolerate" an exchange rate below 1.20 (which they say is still high). Gold is currently $1892 an ounce.