Tomorrow's Gameplan

Make no mistake that this market is OB, but guess what? It doesn't matter. With Europe looking "solved" (yeah right), and earnings season kicking off with a Google-sized bang, the bulls are in control. This rally could go another week, but when we're OB like this my research tends to lead me more towards finding good stocks to short, not buy. I may snag some Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) to play Wednesday's earnings report but only if I see a good entry. Also, one of my screens shows that Nabors Industries (NBR) and CVR Energy (CVI) have historically run on avg 8%-9% from where they closed Friday, over 95% of the time! Not bad odds right? I'll be picking some up early in the AM. But on the short side, another one of my screens turned up three names that historically have fallen, on avg, at least 5% over 70% of the time they became OB. It's not time to short since they're not quite OB yet, but I'll be watching Rio Tinto (RIO), DineEquity (DIN) and Rubicon (RBCN) very closely. Harbin Electric (HRBN) is already flashing "Tech OB" so I shorted some on Friday. Last time Harbin Electric (HRBN) registered "Tech OB" in my screen it fell over 12%. Chinese stocks are getting killed anyway recently so if the market turns, this one could test it's 200d MA. Harbin Electric (HRBN) closed at $22.09 on Friday and it's 200 day MA is $18.10.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL and short HRBN at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Tomorrow's Gameplan

Google (GOOG) reported a stellar quarter after the bell, handily beating eps estimates by 11%. I'm guessing we'll be up off the news tomorrow (tech anyway), but this rally has been long in the tooth since Friday. If we are up, I'll be using it as an opp to close out my longs and add to my shorts. It's hard to get short into Apple's (AAPL) earnings due out Wednesday after the bell, but this market has been OB for a while. I'd rather miss some upside and perserve capital, than get caught too exposed.  If anything, let's pray Apple (AAPL) is down Monday so we can get in before earnings, but don't count on it. I promise we'll have a better entry point than tomorrow. I started a position in Western Refining Inc. (WNR) which is red hot right now. I started another position in $VXX and will open one in $FAZ if we have a real melt-up. PLEASE BE WARNED: There is pain ahead in this market so don't get caught up in the "jubilation" tomorrow.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

A little perplexed is I...

Not knowing what to do sucks. I've been waiting for a correction that's looks like it's never coming and missed an ass-load of upside doing so. I'm not in "panic-chase" mode by any means, but yesterday and today I've slightly increased my long exposure via $TZOO and $WNR. I'm hedging those bets with some $VXX and should be about 65% cash, 25% long and 10% short by day end. I'll be looking to increase my short exposure by trimming down my long position to about 10% and adding to my $VXX, and staring some $FAZ if we gap higher from here.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long TZOO, WNR and VXX at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

I was too damn early

My technical indicators have been flashing OB since Friday and now are even in the upper end of the OB range, but it doesn't matter. Stock fundamentals have been too low for a while, and with Europe looking solved for the time being and the good companies are playing "catch-up" with fair value. Damn the technicals. It's dumb to get in front of this upwards momentum. Call me dumb. I had to cover all my shorts and sell my $VXX and $EDZ today. I got aggressive with some $TZOO and still have some $AAPl, $ARCO, and $ALXN but remain almost 80% in cash. I know I'm probably going to miss a few days of upside but 20% long exposure when we're this OB is fine with me. Remember the motto: Perserve capital.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long TZOO at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Slovakia!! God bless you....

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Iveta Radicova

Tonight, after much speculation they would vote it down, the Slovakian government voted on the EFSF package to save Greece and did just that. This is just political posturing by the Slovakian opposition party to sway voters, as Slovakia, just like Germany and France, have presidential elections coming up next year. I'm 100% sure they will pass it eventually, but not until they've thrown the current president, Iveta Radicova, under the bus. The fact that all this bullshit fell on an election year in the three most important countries on the planet has just added to the boondoggle. Alcoa $AA reported a stinker of a number after the bell and while everyone expected a disappoint, no one (except the options risk pricing) expected this crapola. The stock is plunging more than 5% after-hours. Between $AA and Slovakia, we're set up for some pretty rough action for the bulls tomorrow. Today I added to my $VXX and shorted some $CRM. I unloaded most of my longs save for a little Apple $AAPL, Alexion Pharma $ALXN and Arcos Dorados Holding $ARCO, only cause I think I can buy everything back cheaper later this week or next. I bought some Activision (ATVI) based on the chart, it looks like it's ready for a break.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long ATVI, AAPL, ARCO, ALXN, VXX, and short CRM at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Today's Gameplan

So I've been tweeting how OB we are for a couple days but the hammer hasn't come yet. I don't even think it comes today so I actually bought some $QQQ this morning when we were down and  I am already showing profit. I'll be selling out of them a day end and will be in about 70% cash. I've lightened up on all my longs since I think I can buy them back cheaper in a few days. I still have my $EDZ and $VXX which I'll add to them if we rally hard. Many stocks are cheap but they could be cheaper. We've come up pretty fast from 1074 and we need a breather.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long QQQ, EDZ and VXX at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Yay Socialism...Yay Beer

So the first European bank falls prey to the debt crisis. We're down 400 right? Wrong, face-melting rally actually. Dexia sold itself to the Belgium government for $4B (something you would have known hours before it actually happened if you follow me @freemrktcptlst) and instantly futures responded positively. Add to that the "promise" (ha!) by Merkozy that the whole thing we'll be handled in 3 weeks and it's off to the races, right? Well, yes this is very good news, but the algo's are still showing me we're much closer to OB (overbought) than OS (oversold) so I'd be using these rallies for taking profits and quick trades. I'm in about 48% cash and will be using today and tomorrow to lessen my exposure to ARM Holding (ARMH), Netflix (NFLX), and yes, even Apple (AAPL) because I see a 5%-7% correction in our not so distant future. I just want to raise cash so I can position myself well for the next leg up. Let's talk about Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) for a second. Both are rallying today for different reasons. Apple (AAPL) reported that they shattered previous presale records with their new handset the iPhone 4S, selling over 1M in the first 24 hours of availability. Netflix (NFLX) (a FMC takeover target) is up over 6% on word the board has decided against spinning the DVD-by-mail business off into 'Qwikster', which has investors hopping. I bought Netflix (NFLX) around $110 and it's hovering around $126 today so I have to take profits, but I reiterate this stock is cheap and primed to be bought by, oh let's say Amazon (AMZN).

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, NFLX and ARMH at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

This is interesting.....

Stats are fun, but with Europe looming over us, we can't take this as gospel. That said, JPMorgan thinks it's true.

A little early, but happy none the less

I unloaded when we were only up a bit yesterday so I've missed the last 300 points but it would have been foolish to not lock in gains when you're up 30% on the week. I'm sitting in about 55% cash and don't intend to do much today. The downside risk is there but so is the upside. Neutral is the way to be. If you were braver than I, don't sell until late in the day. Everyone who made bank this week is taking profits now, but there won't be any bears willing to put there asses on the line and get short here so I think we have triple digit gains by day-end. I'm still holding Apple (AAPL), Arcos Dorados Holding (ARCO) and ARM Holding (ARMH) cause I've taken such a bath with them and I don't see much more downside (famous last words lol). Also, I still have my Netlix (NFLX) on takeover spec and Alexion Pharma (ALXN) on FDA-approval spec which I'll hold til it happens or I'm wrong. Still long dollar and short euro.

-Stay thirsty my friends ;)

Today's Game Plan

Two days ago I outlined my short term strategy of getting long, and yesterday I covered all my shorts early into the dip. I picked up Decker's Outdoor (DECK), Spyder S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Russel 2000 ETF (IWM), Apple (AAPL), and, believe it or not, a nat. resources company Cliff's Natural Resources (CLF). I also started a position in the Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) as a play on the strengthening US Dollar. This is one of my favorite Q4 themes. Tomorrow I'll be looking to add to my Euro shorts via the (EUO) since I think this rally continues on more "good" news out of Europe which should bring up the struggling currency. With the exception of my FOREX moves, all my other trades are very short term. I'll look to start selling all my other trades in 5% or so except for Apple (AAPL), because it's P/E is too low, Netflix (NFLX), because it's oversold and a prime takeover target, and Alexion Pharma (ALXN) because approval of it's drug could come as early as Q4. I wouldn't buy any commodities here except copper for a quick bounce.

-Good Luck, let's make some money.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long DECK, SPY, IWM, AAPL, CLF, ALXN, and NFLX at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Have you heard??

Don't know if you heard, but Apple (AAPL) announced the latest upgrade to it's iPhone today to overwhelming disappointment (at least according to the blogosphere). I mean people are pissed! Just search "Apple" on twitter! It looks like they'll maybe sell 10-11 iPhone 4S's if the comments are to be believed. If you don't believe in Apple (AAPL) you are more than justified. I mean how can one company keep winning, time after time, after time? They can't right? Everyone falls eventually. So I'll tell you what I'll do. If any of you have Apple (AAPL) stock you don't want, The Free Market Capitalist is taking donations, just send your stock certificates to the adress on. Look, all kidding aside, was it a disappointment? Yes, it was. But you can bet it will be the best selling disappointment of all time. Subsequently, after the announce, the stock was hammered 5% and dragged the whole market with it. After rallying back from the morning lows, the S&P 500 was just turning positive when Apple (AAPL) announced the iPhone 4S. In a matter of minutes, the whole market had reversed with Apple (AAPL) leading the way. Then call it "cooler heads prevailing" or some rumor out of Europe about bank solvency, but we turned around and turned around hard. The Dow ended up 153, the NASDAQ up 69, the S&P 500 up 25, and look at what we have here, Apple (AAPL) closed down a mere .56%! That's a bloody rally!

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Crushed

I told you yesterday I was setting up a "go for broke" scenario this morning and I covered all my shorts, got long some names, and held my Apple (AAPL). While I had predicted that the announcement today would take down the stock, I didn't listen to my own advice and remained heavily invested. What I underestimated was how much this market, nay, this world needed something magical out of Cupertino today. With China collapsing, Europe on it's way out and our government looking like a chicken with it's head cut off, all eyes were on Apple to show us something that we "had to have". Something that would inspire everyone to find a way to get $300 so they could acquire the "must have" phone. That is why when Apple (AAPL) disappointed the whole market began to sell off. I actually already bought some Apple (AAPL) off the news because I told you yesterday, this is an earnings story. They're still going to make $45 next year and at $356 per share, when you back out the $72 in cash per share they have right now, that's has them selling at a 6.3X next years earnings. For a company growing at 20% YOY, this multiple seems pretty low. The biggest danger in the short-term is if one of the 181 hedge funds that holds Apple (AAPL) decides to liquidate it could send the stock down another 20%. When big growth gets hit, it gets hit hard

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

I'm calling a short term bottom...so sue me

Well bears, here's your chance to make me look foolish. On a day when we breached the lows of the year, something I warned would spark a huge amount of selling, I'm calling a bottom. Well a short term bottom at least. I tweeted earlier that I just didn't feel all that bearish here even though we breached some key support levels. If we open up down tomorrow watch the 1090 level cause that's where I think we turnaround, and that's where I'll be buying. I'm not sure who'll lead the way, but I'm guessing it will be tech since Apple (AAPL) is in play tomorrow. Once I see who's leading the way I'll be looking for some longs and for a 6%-8% bounce in the major indices over the next week or so. But I would use this rally to unload any big losers, and take profits on winners, because I see nothing good on the horizon concerning Europe or China which is what's driving the action. Even if the Greek default is "manageable" and China has a soft landing, it will take some work to get there (and by work I mean lower equity prices). When this market starts to become overbought, and the VIX creeps below 30, I intend to be long only a few issues like Apple (AAPL) and Alexion Pharma (ALXN). I think Netflix (NFLX) is oversold and just begging to be bought by Amazon (AMZN) or Apple (AAPL) so I'll hold on to it. I'll be long the dollar index and short the Euro. I'll also be covering my gold and silver shorts on any weakness in the coming week and will look to start to getting long the precious metals in euro terms. That's a bit of a complicated trade but I think you'll see much greater upside in the price of gold and silver in euro terms vs. dollar terms.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, NFLX, and AMZN at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Looking ahead to next week

Today's economic data wasn't all that bad, but China and Europe are driving the action. We'd be down a lot more but America is actually getting healthier, and our companies have strong fundamentals, unlike Europe. On the other hand, if you're company even knows where China is on the map, it's selling off today. Anything related to China is getting swept up in talk of what could be the hardest "hard landing" in history. Throw in an SEC investigation into the balance sheets of Chinese ADR's, most of which are traded on the Nasdaq, and you have a real problem. I forever the optimist don't think it will unfold like this, but it's not the time to be buying anything Chinese. Next week we get a slew of economic data, starting the week with the ISM Index, then construction spending, auto sales, truck sales, and factory orders. At the end of the week we get the big ones, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment. We'll see if the US data moves the market, or if it's still all about China and Europe. My guess is on the latter with one caveat, Apple (AAPL). If you read my blog you know next Tuesday, Tim Cook will release the much anticipated iPhone 5 and iPhone 4S. It's hard for me to say whether the market will like the phone or not until it's unveiled, but if Apple (AAPL) gives us a positive surprise or two, I think it can take the tech sector up along with it. ARM Holdings (ARMH) and Broadcom (BRCM), both of which are down close to 2% today, will be great ancillary plays off any good Apple (AAPL) news.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, BRCM, and ARMH at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Me thinks this market be crazy

If you invest in momentum stocks like I do, you're not really sure what rally the lame-stream media is talking about today. Up 140? The Dow once again masks the ugly, underlying action that, at least for the time being, is the true tale of this market. I have about 100 companies I watch on a regular basis, and five had green arrows today. Five. This looks like a big move away from risk, or as the kids are saying "Risk Off." But, I did do some shopping today. I bought some Alexion Pharma (ALXN) as it was down 4%. I had been looking for this one to pullback for a while and today gave me the opportunity to add to my position. Also, I am now speculating on a Netflix (NFLX) takeover with the NOV 135 calls. I covered some of my shorts in Fossil (FOSL) only because by mid-day the stock was down almost 12%! It ended the day down 7% so I'm already happy with the move. I still think there is plenty of downside risk out there, so I'll be leaving the rest of my Fossil (FOSL) shorts on until I see some better data points out of Europe and China. China took center stage today as fears of a hard landing have accelerated. If it's not Europe, it's China. We can't get a break! Add to that the SEC is now probing Chinese companies to make sure their balance sheets aren't air, and that made for an all-out sell-off in the Chinese ADR's. Baidu (BIDU) and New Oriental Education and Tech (EDU) were down huge but parred their losses going into the close. At one point New Oriental Education and Tech (EDU) was down over 18%! I had to literally leave the office so I wouldn't buy these names, but it looks like I would have already made a handy profit had I just listened to my instincts. I wouldn't have held anything overnight, but it would have been one boss of a day trade. 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long ALXN and NFLX, and short FOSL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

I'm still not buying it...

I seem to be a very torn individual these days. Many of the things I predicted would happen have begun to come true. The market is up 150+ points as Germany passed the TARP-like measure seen as necessary to save the Euro Zone, and jobless claims and GDP came in better than expected so it seems the economy isn't quite as bad as we all thought. All seems rosy right?? Wrong. There are some ominous signs out there that have me raising cash and only picking at a few select names on weakness. We'll start with copper, probably the best indicator of economic growth out there, has fallen like a stone. China, the gasoline keeping this global economy running, is drastically reducing how much copper it's consuming. Then a poll taken by Bloomberg showed 59% of respondents believe China will fall to sub-5% GDP growth by 2016. A "hard landing" of less than 5 percent growth for the world's most populous nation would be "disastrous" for the world economy, said Qu Hongbin, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong. The nation wouldn't be able to create enough jobs for those entering the workforce, sparking a "serious social problem," he said. "I'd rather bet that it's the end of the world in five years than to bet on China's growth falling below 5%." This puts into perspective just how dire this situation is. If China goes, we all go. Your iPhone goes from costing $250 to $1000. Not good. Hopefully China would have the foresight to change their model to accommodate the lower growth by shifting to a strategy of household spending- led expansion, softening what global investors anticipate will be a hard landing. We should stay away from BRIC stocks such as Baidu (BIDU), New Oriental Education and Tech (EDU) and Arcos Dorados Holding (ARCO) until we get a clearer picture of what's going on in the land of Mao. Another ominous sign is which stocks are actually leading this market. I truly believe as goes Apple (AAPL), goes the market, and recently Apple's (AAPL) RS line has been falling. I talk about Apple (AAPL) a lot as the leader of this market but it's not just Apple (AAPL). All the mo-mo names like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Decker's Outdoor (DECK) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) need to lead the way. Right now that just isn't happening. Almost every stock I watch is down today in an up 160 market. Gold and silver are up a bit here but I won't be adding to my shorts today unless we go dramatically higher. The precious metals have fallen so much you'd think there would be a little consolidation before we move another leg down. The only move I'm contemplating right now is adding to my euro shorts. The euro is up about a penny today versus the dollar off the Germany vote, but I see many bumps in the road ahead for Europe. My year-end price target for the euro is $1.28.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL and ARCO at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Stocks & Commodities Fall as German Parliamentary Vote Takes Front Stage

These late day fades are killing the bulls. You wonder how much longer they can take it before they just throw in the towel. We were dancing between gains and losses all day, opening up 100 points only to give it all back and then some by 3PM. Then, as usual, the fast selling started and took us another 100 points lower in the last 15 minutes of trading. I'll reiterate my view that you shouldn't be buying anything in this market except Apple (AAPL) and Alexion Pharma (ALXN). Overnight or early tomorrow morning there is a vote in the German Parliament to decide on Greece's bailout package. If it fails, you can bet we'll be taken down hard. Remember, when TARP was first introduced to Congress it was shot down, then the market plummeted and forced Congress' hand. TARP was finally passed, eventually saving us from a total collapse. You have to think, over in Europe they have a bunch of lefties in office who are anti-capitalist to begin with. You think they want to bailout the "fat-cat" bourgeoisie bankers that got them into this mess in the first place? Talk about moral hazard. They hate the bankers over there more than we do. Then, even it passes, it has to be the right plan. How did we react when the Fed didn't give us the stimulus we wanted last week? Down 700 in the blink of an eye. Gold and silver resumed their drop Wednesday but expect and bounce back up to the $1700 level if the vote fails. I'll be adding to my Proshares Ultrashort Silver ETF (ZLV) and Proshares Ultrashort Gold ETF (GLL) positions if we do bounce on a failed German vote, but if it passes, look out below.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, GLL, ZLV, and ALXN at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Cautiously Optimistic

It's amazing how quickly things go from the "end-of-the-world" to "Paradise Island" nowadays. This is one broad rally with all but 2 of the stocks I watch rising over 1%. Volume is pretty normal out of the gate, but will see how the day unfolds. As much as I'd love to jump into the names that are rebounding like Baidu (BIDU), Arcos Dorados (ARCO), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN), I think it's best to continue to be cautious here. We've been following the pattern of pricing in a "smooth" default in Greece before it actually happens, and then at any sign we were wrong we sell of, and we sell off violently, hence my caution. The lows of the year held again, the best contrarian investor out their, Doug Kass, has called a bottom, and investor sentiment is almost as bearish as the 09' bottom. These are all very positive signs, but any bad news out of Europe will take precedent over anything else. I'm still buying Apple (AAPL) and Alexion Pharma (ALXN) as I continue to believe these companies will buck any macro trends. In fact, I'd like to talk about the report form JPMorgan yesterday citing parts suppliers, that Apple (AAPL) cut iPad orders for Q4 by 25%. My sources are confirming something I suspected the minute the report dropped and mentioned twice twice yesterday. Not only is Apple diversifying it's supply chain in Asia, it is moving an unknown amount of production to Brazil. How much you want to bet that "unknown" amount is 25% ;) Even if we do continue this rally, we should take a breather the next couple days because we've come up so quickly. I'd lighten up on your aggressive longs and add to any solid shorts as I think tomorrow we could see a pullback. If you have any shorts not working out, like the Fossil (FOSL) puts I bought before the big rally yesterday, than don't sell them for a loss, wait for tomorrow to unload. If you don't have a short position in gold or silver, I like starting one right here. Both precious metals are rising hard today and I think they have a good 10%-15% downside form here. Put on half what you'd like to short today and wait to see what happens. We could see $1700 before $1500, but I expect $1700 to act as resistance if we do get there. The Euro is also rising today and I'll probably add to my shorts via the Proshares Ultrashort Euro ETF (EUO) by day end. Regardless of how the European debt crisis unfolds, I belive the Euro comes out the other end much cheaper than today. I'll be using days like this to add to my position and look to start covering around $1.28-$1.30. Don't forget you can always check the twitter feed to see my trades live.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, ARCO, BIDU, ALXN and EUO, and short FOSL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

Gold Rebounding; Futures Higher

Gold is finally rebounding a bit here, up $50 to $1645, after the worst bout of selling in the precious metal since 2008. Silver is bouncing back even harder up over 4% to $31.30. I covered my shorts early yesterday precisely in anticipation of support around $1600. I would be more inclined to short this bounce than buy the decline, but the easy money's already been made. I expect to see $1500 before $1800, but it won't be straight down. If you read my blog you know I'm bullish on gold long-term. That's why I own the Spyder Gold Trust ETF (GLD) for the Free Market Capitalist Portfolio. Trends always tend to go a little further than most expect so we may see lower than $1500, but that's where I'll start buying for the FMC Portfolio, and myself. I'll be buying silver more aggressively than gold as I think silver easily doubles here over the next year, gold may see a respectable but more modest 20-30% rise. Futures are slightly higher in Asia and with a "fix" on the way in the Euro zone, we may see some more upside in equities these next few days.

Rally 276 points? Obviously ;p

This market is confusing as hell but there's one thing you can bet your mortgage on, whatever happens is happening in the last hour of trading. I mean it's like the whole day we're just gearing up for 3PM so the HFT's can drag us one way or the other. We ended the day up 270+ on the DOW and even the NASDAQ got dragged kicking and screaming into the green. Does this rally mean the worst is over? Maybe,but it's too soon to tell and I'm not devoting a bunch of capital until I know for sure. Apple (AAPL) was the story today after JPMorgan reported that the gang in Cupertino has cut it's iPad parts orders by 25% for Q4, the first time JPMorgan has ever observed such a cut by Apple (AAPL). After being down over 3% in the first hour of trading, Apple (AAPL) recovered and only closed down about a buck to $403. I stated earlier that if this is true, it's more telling of the economy, Europe especially, than Apple (AAPL) itself. I shorted some Fossil (FOSL) today based on it's chart and it had already started working, but the big reversal upwards at the end of the day erased those gains. I'll leave them on until I see clear direction and bail if we really start gapping up.  Gold dipped below $1590 early in trading and settled in around $1597. I sold 75% of my short position in gold this morning since I had been short since $1900. I think gold sees $1500 before $1800, but it could bounce around here for a while. I'm seeing a lot of things on sale out there like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Baidu (BIDU) but all the technicians are saying "stay away". Admittedly all I see are broken charts, but I'm a contrarian investor, I like to buy when sentiment is most bearish and charts are most broken.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL, WYNN and BIDU, and short FOSL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.