I'm so sick of hearing about Apple (AAPL) today I want to throw my phone out the window, but I'm gonna give you the final word on La Manzana. Today, no matter how you measure it, the iPhone 4S disappointed. Mainly, because it wasn't a homerun, and Apple hits in the 4 spot. In other words, Apple (AAPL) must outdo itself every year (which is impossible) or end up disappointing. The fact is they didn't give the public what they wanted. I'm here to tell you it won't matter. When you go to buy a phone, the iPhone 4S has the best specs on the market and that's the one most people will buy. Right now people are angry (including me) because they didn't get what they wanted and they want to spite Apple (AAPL) by protesting the new phone. But in reality, when you step back and look at the smartphone market, the 4S is leaps and bounds above it's closest competitors. But the real story is not the phone, it's the software. Today, iOS 5 was overshadowed by a "disappointing" hardware upgrade, but once people start using the upgraded OS it's going to blow up. Not only will Apple (AAPL) sell the same number of phones (if not more thanks to Sprint getting in on the fun) as they would have had they released iPhone "5" (Which I estimate at about 24M), but since they are using the same casing, there manufacturing costs will be lower and margins will rise. This will boost EPS more than enough make up for the 100 phones they don't sell to whiny customers expecting something more 5-ish because of leaked case designs. I'm reiterating my $45 EPS estimate for 2012 and think this stock should be bought on any weakness. I'm telling you, this phone is a sleeper. When it's gets in the hands of the people it will spread like contagion.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.
No comments:
Post a Comment