Tuesday, September 20, 2011

I have to urge caution



If you didn't build any positions in this market yet I would suggest waiting. This type of frothy day spurs irrational buying and I have to warn against it. Don't get me wrong, I think all the stocks mentioned on this blog are undervalued and should be bought over time. I mean when you break it down, that's the game; identifying undervalued assets, and that's what I've done. I just think there is too much short-term downside risk coming out of the Fed tomorrow if Bernanke doesn't give us more QE. The lame-stream media would have you believe the entire rally off the August 8th lows has been in anticipation of more stimulus from the Fed. They would have you believe that if we don't get an announcement of QE tomorrow we're headed back to the lows or worse. There is some truth to that, but the stocks that have led this rally (high-beta) should continue to thrive regardless of the overall macro environment. It's true that if Big Ben doesn't announce more stimulus tomorrow we will sell-off, but it should provide an opportunity in the quality names I talk about regularly, especially tech. So raise some cash today and let's just watch what happens tomorrow. Worst case scenario we miss a little upside. If you learn one thing from this blog, learn this: The game is NOT about catching upside, but preserving capital. I can't stress this enough! We get too caught up in "missing" a big move one way or the other. Remember, there will always be another opportunity as long as you have the capital to invest. 

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