Thursday, September 22, 2011

Did anyone get the license plate of that truck??




There isn't a lot to say after a day like this. I didn't expect us to react this badly to the Fed decision, but we did. Let's accept it and move on. I'm actually disappointed we didn't fall more here at the end. We need to capitulate and get the wholesale buyers in, and we need cheaper prices to do so. I really believe we're better off than we were on August 8th (the last time the market was at these levels), so I'm a bit perplexed by the overwhelmingly negative action. I would be in cash or even short this market until we work out the macro issues that are looming over us. The worse thing you can do hear though is panic and close book. If you panicked the week of August 8th and closed your book, you would have missed the last month of upside. Even if you believed we'd eventually hit these lows again or worse, you would have had an opportunity to get out at a higher price than if you just followed the lemmings off a cliff. So even if you want to sell be patient and you'll get a better price to do so in the coming days and weeks. The only issue I'd even touch right now is Apple (AAPL). Why? Let's do some math. Apple (AAPL) has about $72 per share in cash on it's balance sheet right now. If we back that out of today's closing price that would put the stock at $330. Apple (AAPL) will make (conservatively) $45 per share next year. That means Apple is selling at 7.34X next years earnings. The average stock in the S&P 500 sells for 13X next years earnings. Growth stocks tend to get valuations that are 1:1 with their growth rate but I'm not saying Apple (AAPL) will ever sell at a 25X P/E again. It probably won't, but even if it sold at an average valuation the stock would be $585. The best run company on earth is extremely undervalued.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. DAK was long AAPL at time of publication but positions can change at anytime.

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